Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 45.177558 53.311869 62.254653 72.783860 84.808050 98.076787 113.791298
2024-10-27 30.807421 40.941100 53.213001 69.032654 88.734859 112.303710 142.453132
2024-11-03 25.080498 36.473910 51.304073 71.724650 98.770449 132.984855 179.101347
2024-11-10 21.625423 33.909130 50.878995 75.525686 109.801462 155.094979 218.646300
2024-11-17 18.883450 31.675440 50.304116 78.645992 119.744687 176.093595 257.853039
2024-11-24 16.038847 28.713366 48.123972 78.973906 125.479632 191.431675 290.077948
2024-12-01 13.201177 25.226417 44.585378 76.694953 126.945152 200.538174 313.816575
2024-12-08 11.424021 23.163711 42.930945 76.983196 132.050104 214.979514 345.814869
2024-12-15 10.098006 21.648722 41.928308 78.101575 138.369751 231.443441 381.555626
2024-12-22 7.921018 18.168865 37.086857 72.252834 132.925414 229.396088 388.982678
2024-12-29 7.168649 17.314564 36.768988 74.064313 140.093528 247.347872 428.074686
2025-01-05 6.178715 15.793984 35.007969 73.084326 142.376373 257.500914 455.282430
2025-01-12 6.032714 16.194586 37.231128 80.106607 159.954345 295.135264 531.127099
2025-01-19 4.755258 13.812591 33.647948 75.901064 157.468169 299.625973 553.970861
2025-01-26 4.300408 13.263168 33.738852 78.807680 168.131643 327.124368 616.674857
2025-02-02 3.991505 13.007022 34.409785 82.926476 181.366455 359.882765 690.094955
2025-02-09 3.662858 12.620548 34.721497 86.306824 193.418959 391.236439 762.741723
2025-02-16 3.190102 11.714577 33.682889 86.661977 199.520545 412.175777 818.230116
2025-02-23 2.639150 10.423062 31.493539 84.193270 199.675370 422.112175 854.592352
2025-03-02 2.304302 9.700732 30.593581 84.505558 205.511025 442.942676 911.617622
2025-03-09 2.051617 9.174285 30.110789 85.717107 213.299893 467.895933 977.395380
2025-03-16 1.563686 7.660550 26.677663 79.378892 204.235457 459.548397 980.669979
2025-03-23 1.419290 7.364849 26.607093 81.342568 213.572907 487.981308 1054.762471